Wednesday 10 April 2013

Going viral

Going viral is such an interesting phenomenon that I found it worth my time to look in to it, as it effects many parts in my life.

For those that do not know whar going viral means; it is the effect of something becoming popular in a very short space of time. It is caused by many people sharing something that they think is interesting or effects them.Cute pictures of kittens are a common surce of going viral but also spam, and chain letters can go viral. Below is a video by Ray William Johnson who comments on the latest viral video clips on youtube.
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Being interested in the actual mathematics behind going viral I naturally stumbled across this link where the person has set up some rather nice excel documents modelling the effect of viral growth. The model takes in to consideration two main variables; the viral coefficent and the viral cycle time. Both have an impact, but while the viral coefficent has to be larger than 1 for there to be any viral growth, the viral cycle length has a larger impact on the rate of growth.

I decided to play with the model because I want to test one specific thing that I believe also has a big impact on the viral effect; what type of people that the information is sent to. Using the Wolfram Alpha tool on my facebook data I saw that they had defined some specific categories of people in my network. I will list them below so that it is clear what I am talking about.:

Social insider
A social insider is a friend who shares a large number of friends with you. Social insiders typically appear in the central areas of your friend network. In the language of graph theory, social insiders have a high degree of centrality.
Social outsiders
A social outsider is someone who shares at most one friend with you. Social outsiders typically  appear at the edge of your friend network. In the language of graph theory, social outsiders have a degree centrality of 0 or 1.
Social connectors
A social connector is someone who connects together groups of your friends that are otherwise disconnected. Social connectors typically appear as bridges between separate clusters of your friends. In the language of graph theory, social conectors have a high betweeniness centrality, which is defined as the fraction of shortest connecting paths across the network that pass through an individual.
Social neighbors
A social neighbor is someone with a small number of out-of--network friends (friends of theirs that you don't know). Social neighbors can appear annywhere in your social network - it is their invisible external connections that matter. In the language of graph theory, social neighbors have a small non-ego vertex degree.
Social gateways
A social gateway is someone with a large number of out-of-network friends (friends of theirs that you don't know). Social gateways can appear anywhre in your social network - it is their invisible external connections that matter. In the language of graph theory, social gateways have a large non-ego vertex degree.

Now if something is to actually go viral, the initial network from whence it comes froms needs to contain many Social outsiders or gateways.because without them, it will stay within the initial network. A network that is closed (in the language of graph theory, all the nodes have 0 non-ego vertex degrees), it will not matter how high the viral coefficent is or how fast the viral cycle is, the network will be, after a while, satuated and the viral object will not go further.


I am now playing with my model to see in what way the social outsiders and gateways affect the viral growth.

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